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[NOTE: I had to edit this because I completely spaced about Utah.]There were a couple interesting articles in the Chicago Tribune today. One discussed Ball State's chances of making the BCS, and the other related to Northern Illinois' plight in 2003. For a refresher, NIU actually beat some quality teams that year in Maryland and Alabama, reaching No. 10 in the BCS and No. 12 in the AP poll before losing to Bowling Green and Toledo.
Granted, the Huskies were beset by injuries, but it should serve as a reminder how quickly dreams can fade.
Here are the two scenarios in which Ball State can make the BCS
• They would earn an automatic berth in a BCS game if they win the MAC and are ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS rankings.
• Or they can earn a berth if they win the MAC, rank in the top 16 and that ranking is higher than that of a champion from a conference that has an automatic berth in a BCS bowl.
Fingers are crossed because the Cardinals will likely need the latter scenario to get in. I'm not sure Boise State is going to lose for starters. Not to mention that TCU, Utah and BYU are still ahead of us in the BCS. Here's how loyal reader Andy Roberts explained to me.
Andy: TCU/Utah play on Thursday night so one of them will fall behind us. Then whoever wins has to lose - Utah still has BYU on the schedule so that might be our best shot.So in other words, a clusterf*ck. And that's just to get us into the No. 2 non-BCS slot. Andy goes on to say that Ohio State would need to lose again to give us a legit shot. And if Boise could lose to Fresno, that'd be great.
Needless to say, we need a lot to happen. And that's the beauty of it.
But right now, I don't see a scenario in which the Mighty Bird can earn a BCS bid. I've been championing this team forever, but for right now I will remain pessimistic. The last thing we need to do is get our hopes up, only for the crushing realization we won't make it, even if the Cards go 12-0. Maybe our best bet is to prepare for the inevitable. But at the same time, we still have to win our games. Win out, and things might take care of themselves.
5 comments:
Our best chance is for Ohio State to lose again, coupled with the TCU/Utah winner also finding a way to lose. Then we'd be the 2nd highest non-BCS team with no other eligible teams to pick from the big conferences, essentially sticking the Orange Bowl with us.
OSU still plays at Northwestern and at Illinois so that's not impossible. However, it does seem like we're probably headed for Detroit if we win out. Then it's just a matter of praying that Nate decides to hang around for four years so we can have a shot at doing this thing in 2009.
Won't we most likely finish in front of whoever wins the Big East? Aren't they a BCS conference? I didn't look too much into this so don't scold me if I'm way off base with the whole BCS clusterfuck.
A common mistake being made is that we can supplant a big-conference winner by finishing ahead of them...that's not true. That rule applies only to non-BCS teams that are in the top 16 and not in the top 12 - if one of them is ahead of a big-conference winner, they get a bid.
Since we're not probably going to reach the top non-BCS slot, that rule becomes moot in our case.
Added: All 6 big conferences get a bid regardless of where they finish. We can't take one of their bids just by finishing ahead of them. That's what I meant to say.
Another possibility is for Boise State to lose at Nevada and BYU to beat Utah. If that happens we should be the #1 Non-BCS team and would get an automatic berth since we are now in the top 16. Again, not real likely, but there is a small chance.
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